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ตัวอย่าง Fermi problem
The classic Fermi problem, generally attributed to Fermi, is "How many piano
tuners are there in Chicago?" A typical solution to this problem would involve
multiplying together a series of estimates that would yield the correct answer
if the estimates were correct. For example, we might make the following assumptions:
1) There are approximately 5,000,000 people living in Chicago.
2) On average, there are two persons in each household in Chicago.
3) Roughly one household in twenty has a piano that is tuned regularly.
4) Pianos that are tuned regularly are tuned on average about once per year.
5) It takes a piano tuner about two hours to tune a piano, including travel time.
6) Each piano tuner works eight hours in a day, five days in a week, and 50 weeks in a year.
From these assumptions we can compute that the number of piano tunings in a single year in Chicago is
(5,000,000 persons in Chicago) / (2 persons/household) × (1 piano/20 households) × (1 piano tuning per piano per year) = 125,000 piano tunings per year in Chicago.
We can similarly calculate that the average piano tuner performs
(50 weeks/year)×(5 days/week)×(8 hours/day)/(1 piano tuning per 2 hours per piano tuner) = 1000 piano tunings per year per piano tuner.
Dividing gives
(125,000 piano tunings per year in Chicago) / (1000 piano tunings per year per piano tuner) = 125 piano tuners in Chicago.
A famous example of a Fermi-problem-like estimate is the Drake equation,
which seeks to estimate the number of intelligent civilizations in the galaxy.
The basic question of why, if there is a significant number of such
civilizations, ours has never encountered any others is called the Fermi
paradox.
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TinyNu   
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12 ก.ย. 54 10:28:49
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