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When I was a kid growing up in bangkok, we used to have "coup days" — school would be canceled because of the threat of tanks rolling down the street. I loved the bonus vacation time, but the fact that putsches, or rumors of them, happened so often as to merit a specific type of holiday proved just how unstable Thailand's political landscape was. Thirty years later, not much has changed in one of the world's favorite vacation destinations. As red-shirted antigovernment protesters have besieged Bangkok for a month now, my son's school has been intermittently shuttered. And the favorite parlor game in the Thai capital remains the same: guessing when the men in green might move.

In the facile political taxonomy we use to categorize nations, Thailand is considered a democracy. Yet the country remains, if not a banana republic, a juicy, messy mango republic. Over the past four years, two political blocs, loosely divided in terms of class and geography, have swapped control of government with whirlwind velocity, using ever more creative protest tactics and distortions of democratic institutions to vanquish their opponents.
(See pictures from Thailand's April 2009 protests.)

The recent twists and turns of Thai politics make even a Tolstoy epic feel streamlined. Here are the highlights: In 2006, after months of protests by his opponents (clad in their trademark yellow shirts), populist Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was overthrown in a military putsch and later sentenced in absentia for abuse of power. After a bungled attempt to guide the country, the generals allowed elections, which a Thaksin-supported party promptly won. But that Prime Minister was forced out of office by a court decree because he had accepted a token fee for hosting a cooking show. Later, with Thaksin's brother-in-law helming the government, the Yellow Shirts, who had besieged the prime ministerial offices for months, resorted to hijacking Bangkok's two airports for a week.

The political deadlock eased only in December 2008 when the constitutional court ordered the Thaksin proxy party dissolved for electoral fraud, paving the way for current Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's ascension through parliamentary backroom deals. Ever since, red-shirted Thaksin supporters have periodically descended on Bangkok streets, demanding fresh elections that they hope will usher in a leader who will address the needs of the nation's lower classes. Their latest rally on April 10 turned violent, with protesters and troops trading gunfire in the shadow of the capital's Democracy Monument; 23 people, both military and civilian, died in Thailand's worst political unrest in nearly two decades. Then, on April 12, a curiously timed Election Commission decision was handed down, recommending that Abhisit's Democrat Party be disbanded for accepting illegal campaign donations.
(Read "Does Thailand's Military Answer to the Government?")

Even as this political farce has unfolded, Bangkok has, for the most part, felt strangely normal. Earlier this month, Abhisit declared a state of emergency in the capital after the red rallies swelled and mysterious grenades were lobbed across town. But restaurants were still packed, bars still buzzing. The only real outcry seemed to come when protesters had the audacity to converge near six shopping malls, forcing a halt to retail therapy.

Yet the growing political lawlessness is devastating for Thailand's economy — and the bloodshed of April 10 is impossible to ignore. Already, foreign investors are looking at regional alternatives like Indonesia or Vietnam as safer places to park their money. On April 12 Thailand's Finance Ministry trimmed half a percentage point off this year's growth estimate of 4.5% because of the continuing crisis. The same day, army chief General Anupong Paochinda, whose support is key to Abhisit's coalition, opined that a parliamentary dissolution followed by elections was a wise course of action. The Reds were elated. They believe their side will prevail at the ballot box. But the Yellow Shirts quickly came out of hiding and announced plans to stage their own counterdemonstrations.

As ever, Bangkok buzzes with speculation that the army might again extend its iron fist, if only to stop the revolving door of street protests. My son, I suspect, will enjoy plenty more coup days off from school.

จากคุณ : แอ๊ด ปากเกร็ด
เขียนเมื่อ : 24 เม.ย. 53 03:22:25




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