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Rough waters in Thailand
05 January 2007
Junta looks ready to tighten its grip as coup rumors fly
The awareness that it is one thing to seize power, and quite another thing to govern may finally be dawning on the royalist generals who booted out Thailands government in September. The junta that dismantled a functional, if imperfect, democratic system with the promise of putting in place something better has made the country less stable and must watch out for new threats even from within its own ranks as the political uncertainty in Bangkok seems to grow by the hour.
In the wake of the New Years Eve bombings that claimed three lives and injured scores, rumors of a second coup against the existing junta spread quickly on Thursday after troop movements were detected around the capital. Although some military and diplomatic sources said the incident was nothing more than a normal troop rotation blown out of proportion, others theorized that generals led by Saprang Kalayanamitr, an assistant to junta leader Sonthi Boonyaratglin, were ready to overthrow Sonthi and the military-appointed government of Surayud Chulanont.
My boss has been too nice to those who have ill intentions for the country and the people, General Saprang told a radio station late Thursday night, lending credence to a theory that some within the junta are prepared to force their would-be allies to take a stronger line against ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his cronies. From now on, we would adjust our strategy and get tough on those people.
The junta now has to consolidate power, shore up its own cohesiveness and also be on the alert for disgruntled supporters of Thaksin, especially in the ranks of the police force, his one-time power base. Oh, and there is still the ongoing bloody insurgency in the Muslim regions in the far south. The change of power in Bangkok has done nothing to ease that situation, either.
To make matters worse, all of this is taking place within the opaque confines of the Thai elite, a world of shifting loyalties, palace intrigues and, now, potentially bloody internecine military politics.
In an effort to calm nerves, Sonthi went on TV Thursday night and Friday morning to deny the coup rumors. He insisted that the Council for National Security, as the junta calls itself, remains unified. These losers are doing everything they can to discredit the September. 19 coup, Sonthi told Army-run Channel 5. They are doing everything to show that the country is in chaos and the CNS can't restore peace as we have promised
. They are trying to tell the people that the CNS and the government have no credibility.
Chaos or whatever you wish to call it, certainly elections, tentatively scheduled for October, look a long way away as contending forces in the capital, none of them readily identifiable, jostle for power.
This is a long way from the royalist-instigated coup, in which military forces were met by civilians in Bangkok bearing flowers and enthusiastic opponents of Thaksins corruption and heavy handed assault on civil liberties proclaimed that a new kind of smiling coup had been invented in Thailand.
As for Thursdays incident, sources said Saprang and company planned to oust the military-appointed government, rip up the interim charter, put Thaksins family under house arrest and seize their assets. They also wanted to arrest former Prime Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, the most vocal junta critic, who also has been suggested as a suspect in the December 31 bombings.
This element of the junta believes, as Saprang said, that Sonthi and Surayud have not done enough to crack down on Thaksin loyalists, allowing them to regroup. Saprang, who is vying to replace Sonthi as army chief when the junta leader is scheduled to retire in October, wants to take a harder line. Sources said the planned coup was foiled because Saprang did not have the support of King Bhumibol Adulyadej.
As Saprang, Sonthi and Surayud met for talks Thursday night, the king never responded to requests for a meeting, leading the three to strike a compromise, sources said, which would see them flexing their military might against Thaksin loyalists and others.
Whatever Thursday nights events portend, the turbulent, opaque maneuvering of the past week makes it seem that the goal of a more democratic Thailand after Thaksins removal may be a pipe dream. Rather, conservative military forces appear ready to tighten their grip on power as struggles within the ranks rise to the surface, setting the stage for continued unease and potential violence. Many analysts speculate whether Sonthi, generally regarded as a professional soldier who is looking forward to retirement, can keep the armed forces unified before the October elections.
Democracy in many countries is not free; people have to fight for democracy, Panitan Wattanayagorn, a political and military analyst at Chulalongkorn University, told Asia Sentinel. No leaders will give democracy to the people easily, so there is going to be a struggle. Since the military took power, the people must fight to gain back democracy. I can only hope it's a peaceful one.
A poll released Friday by Assumption University found that the governments popularity plummeted after the New Years Eve blasts. Just 48.5 percent of 1,600 Bangkok residents polled by the university said they support Surayud after the explosions, down from 90 percent when the junta appointed him premier in October.
Potentially more worrisome for the generals is a growing lack of trust in the military. Sixty-three percent of respondents said they trust the police ‑ which the generals are trying to restructure and was the launching pad for Thaksins rise to power and wealth ‑ to protect them from future attacks, while only 53 percent had confidence in the army and 11 percent in Surayud himself.
On Thursday, Surayud told the public to expect more life-threatening events in the near future, and Friday he said the unrest could continue for several months.
After the bombings, the divide between Surayuds government and the generals seems to be growing. While the prime minister has claimed that no concrete evidence has surfaced to make arrests, the generals have consistently fingered rogue military elements connected to Thaksin.
But no matter how much heat Surayud takes, analysts say its quite unlikely he will be removed by force, since King Bhumibol supported him explicitly in his annual birthday speech last December.
The king gave Surayud unconditional support, an Asian diplomat said. Whoever takes Surayud out will be a villain, maybe even worse than Thaksin.
Garnering the kings support for any major political moves is absolutely crucial in Thailand, where the monarch has near godlike status. When Sonthi staged the September 19 coup, he was granted an audience with the king within hours, leaving the masses no doubt as to what their beloved king thought. Then the coup leaders appointed Surayud, who served on the kings 19-member privy council, to lead the interim government. In December the king blessed Surayuds government in his annual birthday speech.
For old people in the government, they have no greed for themselves and deserve a compliment for their willingness to continue to serve the country although they have long worked and should have their retirement time, he said.
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