Duncan McCargo
The Guardian, Wednesday September 3 2008

When the first fatality occurred in the clashes between rival
"pro-democratic" forces in Bangkok early yesterday morning,
people were shocked but not exactly surprised. Pressure had been
building for more than three months, as yellow-shirted
protesters styling themselves as the People's Alliance for
Democracy appropriated royalist colours and nationalist language
to oppose the government of prime minister Samak Sundaravej and
his People Power Party (PPP). Late last year, Samak proclaimed
himself a nominee of the party's mentor and financier, the
former PM and now ex-Manchester City owner Thaksin Shinawatra.


Although he was ousted in a military coup in 2006, Thaksin's
five-year premiership has cast a long shadow over Thai politics.
As the first recent PM to threaten the symbolic dominance of
the monarchy, he remains a controversial figure. He was
supported initially by two main groups: elements of the middle
class and the business community, many of Sino-Thai descent; and
rural voters from the populous north and northeast. Both
groups, who were exasperated by the bureaucratic and military
establishment, saw in the billionaire telecoms tycoon someone
who could restore national pride after the 1997 Asian economic
crisis. A former policeman fond of swift action and populist
mobilisation, Thaksin threatened the core elite - monarchists
who occupy key formal and informal positions in the country.


Protests against Thaksin and Samak reached new heights after
Thaksin fled in August to escape a series of corruption-related
court cases. Samak has since been publicly distancing himself
from Thaksin, and paradoxically, the PAD demonstrations have
served his purposes well, giving him a pretext to drop Thaksin
loyalists from his cabinet. Samak, an ultra-conservative, has
cultivated army commanders in a bid to avert a further coup,
something the PAD has been trying to trigger. In much of this,
Samak has been advised by a leading power broker, tough-guy ex-
minister Newin Chidchob, who has links to the shadowy "pro-
Thaksin" Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship, which was
involved in the fatal clash with the PAD.

What does the PAD really want? It has advocated a "new politics"
based on a parliament with a 70:30 formula: 70% appointees, 30%
elected representatives. PAD supporters are drawn largely from
the south, where they have blockaded airports, creating chaos
for tourists. With Thaksin gone, the movement's call for a
"general uprising" seems rather desperate, and its substantive
demands - beyond Samak's resignation - are confusing. Whereas
previous demos involved clear clashes of ideas, neither the PAD
nor the DAAD advocate any recognisable form of democracy; Thais
are deeply divided into pro-PAD and pro-Thaksin camps.

Those on the streets are not the main protagonists in this
struggle. The real players are working behind the scenes. On
some level, the PAD is receiving moral support from the
monarchical network yet the monarchy itself remains sniffy about
street protests and sceptical about the real motives of the PAD
leadership. Newin Chidchob is rumoured to be coordinating events
from a suite at the luxury Pullman Hotel; many senior police
officers are personally loyal to him.

Meanwhile Thaksin is holed up in his Surrey mansion and has
applied for political asylum in the UK. He is another potential
beneficiary: the newly declared state of emergency in Bangkok
may strengthen his claim that he should not be sent home just yet.

· Duncan McCargo is professor of Southeast Asian politics at the University of Leeds

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/sep/03/thailand

ดันแคน มองว่า การประกาศสถานการณ์ฉุกเฉินเป็นข้ออ้างที่เป็นประโยชน์สำหรับ ดร.ทักษิณ
ว่าประเทศนี้ "มีปัญหา" และยังคงมีมุมมองเกี่ยวกับ PAD และ DAAD ว่ามี The real players are working behind the scenes.

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