ความคิดเห็นที่ 68
 
Credit: rescom2006.trf.or.th
Sang Udomjarumani
Chief Executive Officer
International Rubber Consortium, Ltd. (IRco.)
ข้อมูลการวิเคราะห์น่าจะเป็นปี 2006 สังเกตการให้ความเห็นส่วนของความร่วมมือสามฝ่าย tripartite 2002
Price development since early 2002 (ตัดตอน)
Looking at the chart of the recent past, you will find that NR prices had moved up rather rapidly in 1994 (2537) until it peaked in early 1995. From then on, NR prices came down quite rapidly and continuously until they reached the lowest point in late 2001. SICOM RSS3 and TSR20 were then traded at below 50 US cents/kg., and TOCOM RSS3 was just slightly above 60 yen/kg.
The three major rubber producing countries in the world, viz. Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, which had a combined production of about 70% of the total NR production of the world, realized that the price trend for NR at that time was detrimental to their economies and the livelihood of their 10 million rubber farmers were at stake. Something had to be done to curb further deterioration of NR prices. Several SOM (senior official meeting) were convened which had culminated at the signing of the Bali Declaration on 12 December, 2001 (2544) and the firm commitment by the three Governments to cooperate closely in implementing the SMS (Supply Management Scheme) and the AETS (Agreed Export Tonnage Scheme) under the auspices of ITRC (International Tripartite Rubber Council). IRCo (International Rubber Consortium, Ltd.) was later established on 8 August, 2002 after the signing of Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) in Bali, to manage the SMO (Strategic Market Operation), and to complement the above mentioned two schemes.
The reaction from the market to the tripartite cooperation was positive. The market rebounded strongly from early 2002 (2545) onwards and continued to gain momentum for the next four and a half years. The TOCOM market is now hovering around 300 yen/kg for the nearby July position compared to about 60 yen/kg in December, 2001.
Although the tripartite cooperation could not claim entire credit for the market upswing, its psychological effect on market sentiment should not be ruled out. Beside the psychological influence of the tripartite cooperation, in particular, the establishment of IRCo, I would like to attribute the market uptrend to the following factors:
The China Factor. Chinas economic boom had brought in its coattail hunger for raw materials to feed its burgeoning industrial sectors. NR was one of the strategic raw materials they were in big demand.
The strengthening of Crude oil prices. We have seen crude oil prices strengthening from around US$20/barrel in 2001 to the present US$75/barrel.
The disposal of all the Government held stocks, including those held by INRO and Thai Government, resulting in low stock situation in most consuming countries.
World-wide economic boom, resulting in stronger car sales, thus generating good demand for tires.
Abnormal weather conditions El-Nino effect in first half of 2005 followed by the La Nina effect in the 1st Half of 2006 which had resulted in disruption of NR production throughout the producing areas in the three major producing countries.
Hurricane Kathrina that swept across the Gulf states in USA, causing heavy damage to production capacity of oil refineries in those areas.
Heavy typhoon that swept through Hainan Island in southern China causing substantial damage to rubber plantations on the Island, the major rubber producing area of China.
Speculative factors. The hedge-fund managers had found since early 2005 that they could make money from TOCOMs rubber futures and they did come into the market in a big way. Their strong buying in TOCOM did contribute to the upswing in the market.
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16 ต.ค. 51 12:28:39
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