ความคิดเห็นที่ 23
hahaha
i think you are just taking the piss, mate
we all know that chartists are stupid, yeah, but please bear in mind that markets are NOT strong-form efficient anyway
moreover, the degree of market inefficiency is greater in different markets. take the thai SET. the market is really inefficient because of many reasons. keeping in mind the standard cause of inefficiencies like transaction costs and so on, it is even less efficient than that, because the market is small, lower liquidity, different investor behaviour, and very high information assymetry (lots of insider trades).
even looking beyond the thai market, i first invite you to come and work on the practical side for a while to see the extremely arbitrary nature that prices are set. this is especially true with equity--since fixed income instruments are easier to price--where the pricing of equity are more or less guess work. u learn in bus school that DCF is flawed, but ppl still use it, they even use stupid multiples that have questionable meanings ... P/E, forward P/E, EV/EBITDA, and guess what, earnings and EBITDA are HISTORICAL measures as well, arent there.
let's see how forecasts are done, they are done by projecting historical figures into the future. and the information they have, would u think that a limitedly rational humanbeing would be able to digest all the available information, and worse :-), to compute them meaningfully. how could one say that a standoff in Iran would increase the probability of conflict by 10%, or any other number for that matter. options models are also calculated using historical volatility.
true, one could argue that the capacity of one analyst might not be accurate, but aggregately the mistakes could cancel out to provide meaningful projections. nonetheless, this is, in my view, pure faith. and markets ARE imperfect, or there would not be research analysts and traders and arbitrageurs. remember the paradox? if the market is perfect, no one willcollect information, and if no one collect information, the market will NOT be perfect.
why am i saying this? well, basically, the market is IMPERFECT, so, especially in shorter time frames where the market could not adjust to all the information, there EXISTS OPPORTUNITY TO PROFIT FROM THE IMPERFECTION IN THE MARKET.
thus, charting is one of the tools that one could use to exploit the imperfection. you can see overreaction to bad news and under-reaction to good news FROM CHARTING (these two behaviours are WELL SUPPORTED BY RESEARCH, can't remember the names though), you can see tendencies to extrapolating past performance into the future (also well supported by research), and etc.
especially for day traders and traders in less perfect markets (thailand), charting can become a useful tool.
but i agree with you, ppl in this room are like คนคลั่งลัทธิ ... they almost กราบ charts ... that's dumb, and i was once also compelled to start such a topic ... lol
BUT LASTLY: i invite you to sit in a real i-bank trading floor, or work in a research department, or work in an investment banking department, and you will realise that we live in a more or less arbitrary world of prices
regards,
จากคุณ :
. (! o_o !)  
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29 เม.ย. 49 12:02:39
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