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Many Scenarios, No Easy Way Out Of Thai Political Crisis
Thailand's worst political crisis in more than a decade is deepening as pressure grows for Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to resign, but prospects for a smooth transition to a fresh government remain dim.
2 Mar 2006
BANGKOK (Dow Jones)--Thailand's worst political crisis in more than a decade is deepening as pressure grows for Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to resign, but prospects for a smooth transition to a fresh government remain dim.
Last week it appeared Thaksin, as aggressive and dismissive of his critics as ever, could ride out the crisis fairly easily, using his strong support in rural areas to prevail over the urban opposition in snap parliamentary elections that he has called for April 2.
But this week, the premier has looked uncharacteristically pale and tense as the opposition's plan to boycott the elections threatens to deprive him of a popular mandate.
Another blow fell on Wednesday as the Post Today newspaper, quoting an unnamed source at Government House, reported that Thai army chief Gen. Sonthi Bunyarattaklin has suggested to Thaksin that he resign.
The report wasn't confirmed, and the newspaper stressed the army wasn't pressing Thaksin to step down but merely giving its assessment of the best way to resolve the crisis.
Supreme Commander Gen. Rueangrot Mahasaranon, head of the armed forces, said rumors of a military coup weren't true: "The military will not interfere in the political conflict. The political problem should be resolved by politicians."
But the army's concern over the crisis - and the opposition's program of street protests against Thaksin's alleged abuses of power and conflicts of interest - raise the possibility that the prime minister could be pressured out of office through methods other than the ballot box.
That would be the biggest political upheaval since popular protests led to the fall of a military-backed government in 1992. For some foreign investors, it would set an ominous precedent, resembling the way in which Ferdinand Marcos and Joseph Estrada of the Philippines were forced out by "people power" protests - incidents that have been followed by years of political instability.
So far, Thai financial markets have reacted little to the political crisis; in recent days they have actually rebounded as investors have assumed Thailand's economic recovery will continue regardless of politics. On Wednesday the baht was only 0.5% lower than its recent peak against the U.S. Dollar, which was hit in late January, while the main Thai stock index was just 2.8% below its January peak.
Nevertheless, some analysts see serious dangers in the political turmoil. Months or years of political uncertainty under a weak government could hurt foreign investor confidence and would probably slow economic policy-making.
Because of their importance as economic stimulus and the political momentum behind them, any new government would probably proceed with many of Thaksin's massive infrastructure projects, which are slated to be worth THB1.8 trillion ($46 billion) over the next four years.
But economic reforms and liberalization, including free trade agreements and the sale of stakes in state enterprises, could slow.
Different Scenarios
"We see a backlash against policies that enhance market forces and welcome foreign participation...The next government (Thaksin-led or otherwise) could be cautious toward pro-market policies which have unfortunately been identified with greed and conflict of interest," Phatra Securities said in a report.
These are the outlines of the most likely political scenarios for coming weeks:
--Thaksin resigns, to be temporarily replaced by First Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak. Thaksin then leads his party into the elections and returns to power with a reduced majority. This would probably be short-term positive for Thai markets but unless Thaksin committed himself to major political reforms, such as checks on the power of a parliamentary majority and increased independence of oversight agencies and the courts, the basic conflict with the urban opposition wouldn't be resolved. Thaksin would remain a magnet for renewed protests and with a reduced parliamentary majority, politics wouldn't be as stable as they were under his dominance in recent years.
--Thaksin resigns and quits politics. Given his determination so far not to back down, this appears unlikely. Uncertainty over the vacuum left by Thaksin's departure could hurt Thai markets in the short term, but they might rally if his faction-ridden Thai Rak Thai Party managed to name a successor and hold together to win the next elections. Infrastructure projects would go ahead but internal party divisions would complicate most other policy-making. The party would remain vulnerable to splitting up if political reforms made it possible for members of Parliament to quit without losing eligibility to participate in new by-elections or snap elections.
--Thaksin resigns and quits politics, and the Thai Rak Thai Party can't hold together to win the elections. A weak government might be formed by the opposition, or a second set of elections or by-elections might have to be called to fill all parliamentary seats. The markets would probably suffer most under this scenario because of the uncertainty and potential for longer-term political instability.
--The Thai king, who has no formal political role but is deeply respected, or Privy Council gives the opposition the cover it needs to back down and participate in the elections by brokering a political reform deal; reform would be pursued by an independent commission. This would be the best outcome for the country and for the markets, but it appears unlikely as the palace can't afford to be seen taking sides between politicians or between specific constitutional reform proposals.
--Thaksin refuses to resign and proceeds with the snap elections without the participation of the opposition. He wins a new majority but faces a deeper legitimacy crisis. Street protests would resume, and Thaksin would have to propose a very strong set of political reforms, stripping him of much of the power that he had won in the elections, if he wanted to calm the political atmosphere. Thaksin may still be counting on this scenario, and it remains a significant possibility.
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