ความคิดเห็นที่ 11
the only relevant factor here will be a global recession lead by the united states' collapse of consumer spending as a result of the subprime debacle.
but please note the fed's stance--it is more worried, for now, about INFLATION, NOT the impact of the subprime on consumers' conficence. note that inflation implies a growing economy, since a for recessionary economy, inflation will be the least of the worries. the fed's injection of liquidity and the lowering of the discount rate--not the fed funds rate--is only a gesture for the money markets and liquidity concerns, but not a move to stimulate the economy.
in any case, the thai domestic economy's fundamentals--the country's private debt, growth (at +4.5%), and the pent up demand--still remain healthy.
i think what is most important is not the subprime risk, but the currency risk, which will chip away at the export lead growth, will be the main concern in the short to medium term. but in the long term, a shift away from export lead growth will be monumental in allocating long term resources away from a sector that will be susceptible for long term global competitive forces.
theme in the short run will be whether the DOMESTIC pent up demand can be tapped, as well as the private sectors' confidence on expanding the CAPEX as thailand is currently on the peak of its utilization cycle. a new government with clear economic policy-i.e. the democrats--including emplying the the right economic stimulants such as megaprojects and encouraging FDI will be key to pave way for a recovery of the 2 years stagnated economy.
จากคุณ :
.. (! o_o !)  
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21 ส.ค. 50 01:06:10
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