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$$CLSA THAILAND BANKING SECTOR REVIEW @@@@@
RICHHOON CLUB -> เวปบอร์ดเสี่ยปอ (เดิม) << ดู topic ก่อนหน้า :: ดู topic ถัดไป >> Author Message JR_Handsome **
Joined: 20 Sep 2007 Posts: 95
Posted: Tue Sep 25, 2007 5:10 pm Post subject: $$CLSA THAILAND BANKING SECTOR REVIEW @@@@@
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thailand James Moss (662) 257 4642 james.moss@clsa.com Sector Review 24 September 2007 Please see important notice on last page Page 1 of 3 August trends 􀂉 Loan growth remained low at 3% for sector in Aug-07 􀂉 Adding back provisions, loan growth running at 6% so broadly in line with 5% for 07CL and 8% in 08CL (excluding Bank of Ayudhya). 􀂉 Kasikornbank seeing the best trends with loan growth accelerating from 4% to 12% since May-06; stock trades at a 22% discount to Siam Commercial Bank despite a similar loan growth and core profitability profile. 􀂉 TMB Bank and Krung Thai Bank are most exposed to asset quality shocks given large non-performing assets and relatively low equity; we remain negative on both. 􀂉 Maintain Neutral on Thai banks
Valuations Company B'berg Rec AvgDaily TradeUSm MktCap USm Price (Bt) Target (Bt) +/-% PER (x) 2008 Yield (%) 2008 ROAE (%) 2008 PBVx 2008 BAY BAY TB BUY 8.6 4,375 26.8 30.0 12.1 13.7 2.2 14.3 1.8 BBL BBL/F TB O-PF 11.1 6,584 118.0 130.0 10.2 11.7 2.6 11.2 1.3 KBANK KBANK/F TB BUY 8.0 5,444 78 94 20.5 12.5 2.9 14.3 1.7 KTB KTB TB SELL 13.0 3,564 10.9 10.0 -8.3 17.2 2.3 7.3 1.2 SCB SCB TB U-PF 11.5 7,651 77.0 80.0 3.9 14.7 3.4 15.6 2.2 SCIB SCIB TB BUY 3.2 1,106 17.9 22.0 22.9 10.0 4.0 9.7 0.9 TMB TMB TB SELL 3.1 2,845 1.9 1.3 -33.2 0.0 0.0 -8.6 1.5 Source: CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets The good, the bad and the ugly Loan growth remained weak in Aug-07 with the seven large banks posting an increase of 3% YoY. This is net of provisions and for the bank-only (ie excludes car loans and other subsidiaries). For the month of August, banks posted a Bt18bn increase in loans against Bt23bn in Aug-06. Year-to-date loans now stand at Bt34bn against Bt74bn in the same period for 2006. It should be noted though that the sector booked provisions of Bt39bn in 1H07 against Bt14bn in 1H06. The only bank to have seen an acceleration in loan growth during 2007 is Kasikornbank (KBANK/F TB - Bt78.0 - BUY). Its loan growth accelerated from 4% in May-06 to 12% in Aug-07 (its loan volumes Ytd of Bt44bn are double 2006 levels). Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB - Bt77.0 - U-PF) has seen its loan growth slow from 17% to 13% since 2006. Meanwhile, TMB Banks (TMB TB - Bt1.9 - SELL) loan growth has gone from negative 2% to negative 12% since 2006 (although it did book provisions of Bt9bn in 1H07). Loan growth remained weak
adding back provisions, loan volumes are down 17% from 2006 KBANK is only bank seeing accelerating loan volumes
SCB decelerating Back to top
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ธนา (I-LOVE-JR)
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