ความคิดเห็นที่ 9
 
ลองดูกันเล่น สมมุติว่า คุณอยู่ อเมริการ ดูกราฟนี้จะซื้อ หรือไม่ พรุ่งนี้ก็จะรู้คำตอบ
แถมข่าวน้ำมัน ที่ญี่ปุ่นเขาว่า อย่างไรหนอ
* Japanese consumers pick up short-term hedging in oil
* Uncertain oil market outlook keeps activity subdued
By Chikako Mogi
TOKYO, March 8 (Reuters) - Japanese oil consumers, shocked in recent months by a price collapse and a deepening recession, are again starting to cautiously insure themselves against the risk of an oil price rebound, although deep uncertainties about the outlook continue to stymie hedging activity.
From niche ski resorts to major refineries, Japanese corporates have never been aggressive about locking in their future energy costs, leaving many exposed last year when oil roared to a record near $150 a barrel.
While relieved to see prices collapse in the months after that, most have been reluctant as yet to bet that this is the market bottom, or have been thwarted by the high cost or difficult access to hedging caused by a credit crisis that froze lending -- and credit lines -- for big and small firms alike.
Now that the freeze is beginning to thaw and prices are showing signs of stabilising around $40 to $50 a barrel, some are once again testing the waters of risk management -- cautiously.
"Demand is rising only in short-term hedging of less than a year, as hedging costs have come down a lot lower than levels previously thought," said Shun Ohashi, an assistant manager in the energy market team at Sumitomo Corporation.
"Some who had not been able to buy hedges before are coming in because prices have fallen, while others are considering procuring hedging," said Ohashi.
Still, risk managers say the combination of still-volatile oil prices and a deeply uncertain economic outlook are keeping most big players on the sidelines.
At the same time, it is a bigger challenge to find a bank ready to take on a big chunk of business, as the financial crisis has taken a toll of foreign banks such as Citigroup <C.N> and Goldman Sachs <GS.N> , major providers of risk services globally.
Countering this effect, however, is the fact that those banks often have decades of experience in the sector, while most domestic players have been in the business a few years or less.
"In order to get the same amount of hedging as before, customers must tap more firms, but the number of players that can offer hedging has dwindled," said Tatsufumi Okoshi, senior economist in the commodities research at Nomura Securities.
"There are some moves to boost hedging ratios by those who had stayed away when high oil prices had made hedging risky."
The head of Nomura's <8604.T> domestic commodities team, which was formed only a year ago, said last month he hoped to double its business by year's end.
BIG TO SMALL
Consumers' hedging demand typically grows when they want to guard against future price rises in commodities they consume, but the sharp drop in oil prices from a record near $150 just half a year ago makes current costs reasonable, traders say.
"We see demand not only from transportation firms but trading houses and a wide range of private-sector firms which need to carry oil for their factories," said a dealer at a European securities firm.
Japanese consumers are largely sticking to shorter-term hedging, dealers say, as they are caught between expectations for rising oil prices when the global economy emerges from the current slump and a lack of confidence in such an outlook.
While the downside risk to oil prices appears to be more limited than other commodities, given the aggressive cuts in output by suppliers, its upside has also been capped by the uncertainty over the prospect of global economic recovery.
A murky outlook has led to an unusually wide spread between the front and longer-term oil contracts, leaving consumers wondering whether near-term contracts are priced too low or not and making their hedging decisions cautious, traders say.
While the front-month contract is pushed lower by the physical market prices, longer-term contracts out to about a year have stayed relatively stable at around $60-$70 even when oil prices were sinking, traders said.
A steeper contango pushes up hedging costs as they are decided based on options and swaps covering the hedging period. If current market price is below the hedging cost, the customers have to pay the difference to the securities firms which provide the hedges.
อีกข่าว
* Street's "fear gauge" is in range of 38 to 53
* Key leading indicator was near 90 in November
* Traders show no desire to pay up for SPX puts
By Doris Frankel
CHICAGO, March 6 (Reuters) - Wall Street's barometer of investor fear is surprisingly subdued.
More often than not, when the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index <.VIX> rises, the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index <.SPX> is falling, or vice versa.
But in 2009, this inverse relationship seems to be out of sync and has prompted Wall Street analysts to remark on VIX's unusual behavior, which typically should be higher due to the seemingly endless daily weakness in the stock market.
U.S. stock markets have continued to grind lower since the turn of the year, with the broad S&P 500 hitting 12-year lows before rebounding on Friday.
The VIX has been mired in a range between 38 and 53, up 26 percent for the year, and closed on Friday at 49.33. The index is still far off the highs seen during the Wall Street panic last autumn, when it approached a near record 90 reading.
Some analysts have suggested the VIX is not moving as high as it should because there is a lack of fear in the market. Investors have become complacent, almost resigned, to the daily grind downward of U.S. stocks.
As a result, there is no rush to buy portfolio protection, which would drive up put index option premiums.
But some have another take on why the VIX is so restrained.
"The VIX is restrained because the amount of puts being purchased is partially being offset by the sale of existing put positions. This is keeping premiums from rising sharply," said Scott Fullman, director of derivative strategy at broker-dealer WJB Capital Group.
Calculated from S&P index option prices, the VIX measures the market's expectation of future volatility over the next 30- day period.
A spike in the VIX is often associated with a steep market drop and when investors, anticipating wide market swings, are willing to pay a greater options premium to manage risk.
Volatility has remained very subdued, even though the S&P 500 has lost nearly 200 points in the last month. The VIX was not even up 10 points during that time, said Larry McMillan, president of options research firm McMillan Analysis Corp in a note to clients on Thursday.
For some reason, complacency and disbelief have accompanied this sharp market decline, McMillan said.
"It's unclear what has possessed so many traders to try to fight this decline -- to bottom fish, to ignore breaking support levels and to refuse to panic," he said.
McMillan believes the market decline will end the same way as all others -- with traders panicking and the VIX spiking upward.
After setting a new closing high of 80.86 on Nov. 20 as stocks hit 11-year lows, the VIX fell to an intraday low of 37 on Jan. 2 and has gradually crept to above a 50 reading.
"The S&P 500 has been down 2 percent almost every day, so there has not been one event that has heightened volatility and prompted traders to rush in and buy protection and inflate the level of the VIX," said Jamie Tyrrell, a trader at Group One Trading, a market maker at the CBOE.
The VIX was boosted over a period of weeks last year when there was a shock to the financial system caused by the collapse of leading financial institutions such as Lehman Brothers, American International Group Inc <AIG.N> and the forced sale of Merrill Lynch & Co <BAC.N> .
"This year there has been a litany of bad news, but not the shock of the magnitude that we saw when the VIX reached those heights back in October and November," said Srikant Dash, head of global research and design at Standard & Poor's indexes, a division of McGraw-Hill Cos Inc <MHP.N> .
The failure of the VIX to spike this year has much more to do with reduced volatility on the market decline and a resignation from traders and investors, neither of which is particularly conducive to a major market bottom, said Bernie Schaeffer, president of Schaeffer's Investment Research in a recent note.
The weakness in the VIX may be an indication investors have become resigned "to the fact we're in a bear market," Schaeffer said. "If so, this probably means that a market crash is unlikely, but equally unlikely is a 'V-shaped' market recovery. And the bearish trend is more likely than not to continue."
(Editing by Andre Grenon)
ลองดูกันเล่นๆ
วันนี้ ว่างมากๆ
จากคุณ :
ศรัทธาชาวสวน 
- [
9 มี.ค. 52 09:41:35
]
|
|
|
อรุณสวัสดิ์ค่ะอาจารย์
.....
