ความคิดเห็นที่ 34
 
NEW YORK, May 5 (Reuters) - The U.S. government is expected to reveal on Thursday the results of stress tests applied to the 19 largest U.S. banks, including whether they need to raise additional capital.
While it is unclear how much information on each bank will be released, the KBW Bank Index <.BKX> has almost doubled since its March 6 low, raising concerns among some investors that bank stocks have become too pricy.
Do they have more room to run?
BUY
"As long as you don't have a material dilution, (banks) will earn their way out of this," said David Harris, chief investment officer at Rockefeller & Co, which has about $25 billion in assets under administration including assets in trusts and estate planning businesses.
"The market's getting a comfort level with the earnings power of these more consolidated franchises ... the survivors are bigger, stronger and will earn great returns that will offset this balance sheet deterioration," he said.
"I do think you can justify bank valuations, given that we have seen signs of stability in the economy and in the housing market," he added.
"We are selective as always but certainly there are banks that we have been buying," he said.
"They're the banks where earnings power is really strong, because a lot of the weaker banks are not there any more. When you come out of the cycle, those that survive should be in good shape."
SELL
"The elation that banks aren't going to fail, that most of them are adequately capitalized even if they don't pass the stress test is to some degree a mildly irrational exuberance," said George Ball, chairman of Sanders Morris Harris Group in Houston, which has $8.5 billion under management.
The rise in bank share prices may have been overdone, Ball said. "The Citigroup <C.N> that was a pennystock (in March) and the Citigroup that is three and a third times that is basically the same company."
"The devil is in the denominator," he added.
"The banks are going to have to issue so many shares -- whether it's conversion of government preferred stock into common stock, or selling additional stock in the private market -- that the true share count is apt to overwhelm the ability of the banks to earn money over the next couple of years."
"We have adopted a posture of profit-taking as (bank stocks have) moved up and we've continued to do that," he said.
"Is this a recovery that continues, or do we get another depression-laiden leg downward?
"That's a very open question and as any stock is a function of the market itself, certainly with regards to bank shares we would be increasingly cautious here."
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