ความคิดเห็นที่ 74
 
* Price misleading as OPEC members lean toward steady supply
* Oil price rally based on factors other than demand
* Industry double-counting around 300,000 bpd of Iran output
(Adds quotes, background)
By Simon Webb
DUBAI, May 24 (Reuters) - Higher oil prices were lulling some members of OPEC into a false sense of security while oil market fundamentals show the need to cut output, Iran's OPEC governor said on Sunday.
If ministers decided to keep output steady at OPEC's meeting in Vienna on Thursday, their decision would be political rather than based on supply and demand balance, Mohammad Ali Khatibi told Reuters in a telephone interview.
"I was surprised to see ministers would probably take a political decision not linked to expert opinion on the market," Khatibi said.
"The temporary price improvement maybe has misled some members to continue like this. Expert findings show that there is an additional need for a production cut."
OPEC was expected to keep output steady at the meeting, as concerns about the economy override worries about falling demand and rising inventories.
Oil rallied to a six-month high above $60 last week, almost double December's low and well above the $50 level that top oil exporter Saudi Arabia and its neighbours have said they could live with to help nurse the global economy back to growth.
Iran needs a higher price than the Arab OPEC members across the Gulf to balance its budget.
The rally in oil prices has come even as the global economic slowdown has sparked the fastest slowdown in demand since 1981 and led to oil building up in storage both on land and on ships anchored at sea.
"Despite high stock levels, which show fundamentals are not in good shape, some believe that they shouldn't adjust production just to help the world economy," Khatibi said.
Oil's rally was based on factors other than demand and could quickly reverse, he said. Those factors included the return of investors to commodities, signs that the global economy may be improving, and the weakness of the dollar, he said.
"Non-fundamental factors can disappear quickly, like they did last year after the price went to nearly $150 and then fell," he said.
QUOTAS
Industry calculations that showed Iran was not adhering to its OPEC quotas were overestimating supply from the world's fifth-largest exporter by about 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) Khatibi said.
OPEC does not provide official production figures and has not given official individual targets under its agreements to cut around 4.2 million bpd from global supply since last September.
It uses secondary sources to monitor output, a legacy of past disputes about how much oil members said they were pumping.
"We are discussing this with our colleagues at OPEC," Khatibi said. "This is not just concerning Iran, there are some others too with problems with numbers from secondary sources."
Venezuela and Angola have also questioned output figures or supply targets. [nLK353239]
Iran pumped around 360,000 bpd above its OPEC target in April, according to a Reuters survey. [OPEC/O]
But Khatibi said estimates that added exports and domestic consumption to calculate Iran's supply were double-counting crude exported from the south as part of a swap agreement in the north, and crude exchanged for oil product imports.
The total volume exported under those arrangements fluctuated, but was around 300,000 barrels per day (bpd), Khatibi said.
About 100,000 bpd was from the swap in the north. Iran imports the crude from Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan on the Caspain coast to meet local fuel demand in its north, and exports the equivalent for the Caspian states in the Gulf.
Another 200,000 bpd was exchanged with suppliers of oil products, Khatibi said. Iran lacks refining capacity to meet domestic demand so depends on imports to plug the gap.
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