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ความคิดเห็นที่ 44 |
How far in the future should we forecast The Widget Company's cash flows? Let's assume that the company is keeping itself busy meeting the demand for its widgets. Thanks to strong marketing channels and upgraded, efficient factories, the company has a reasonable competitive position. There is enough demand for widgets to maintain five years of strong growth, but after that the market will be saturated as new competitors enter the market. So, we will project cash flows for the next five years of business.
Revenue Growth Rate
We have decided that we want to estimate the free cash flow that The Widget Company will produce over the next five years. To arrive at this figure, the standard procedure is to forecast revenue growth over that time period. Then (as we will see in later chapters), by breaking down after-tax operating profits, estimated capital expenditure and working capital needs, we can estimate the cash flow the company will produce.
Let's start with top line growth. Forecasting a company's revenues is arguably the most important assumption one can make about its future cash flows. It can also be the most difficult assumption to make. (For more on forecasting sales, see Great Expectations: Forecasting Sales Growth.)
We need to think carefully about what the industry and the company could look like as they evolve in the future. When forecasting revenue growth, we need to consider a wide variety of factors. These include whether the company's market is expanding or contracting, and how its market share is performing. We also need to consider whether there are any new products driving sales or whether pricing changes are imminent. But because that future can never be certain, it is valuable to consider more than one possible outcome for the company.
First, the upbeat revenue growth scenario: The Widget Company has grown revenues at 20% for the past two years, and your careful market research suggests that demand for widgets will not let up any time soon. Management - always optimistic - argues that the company will keep growing at 20%.
That being said, there may be reasons to downplay revenue growth expectations. While the company's revenue growth will stay strong in the first few years, it could slow to a lower rate by Year 5 as a result of increasing international competition and industry commoditization. We should err on the side of caution and conservatism and assume that The Widget Company's top line growth rate profile will commence at 20% for the first two years, then drop to 15% for the next two years and finally drop to 10% in Year 5. Posting $100 million of revenue in its latest annual report, the company is projected to grow its revenues to $209.5 million at the end of five years (based on realistic, rather than optimistic, growth expectations).
แก้ไขเมื่อ 12 ม.ค. 53 18:15:43
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12 ม.ค. 53 18:12:32
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DCF Analysis: Introduction
It is described as"discounted" cash flow because cash in the future is worth less than cash today.
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