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Next Stop $1500?
Today's Idea
Traders looking to get long Gold by buying call options do run into the downside of time decay as option expiration draws near. More aggressive traders may wish to explore the purchase of a call option on Gold futures, with the sale of a Gold put to help offset some of the premium paid for the long call positions. For example, with June Gold trading at 1472.30 as of this writing, the June Gold 1500 calls could be bought and the June Gold 1380 puts sold for about 12.00, or $1200 per spread, not including commissions. The trade would be profitable at option expiration in late May should June Gold futures be trading above 1500 plus the amount of the net debit paid for this trade. Ideally, the strike of the short put should be below a key chart support point, as most traders would not want to see the futures trade below the strike price of the short put.
Fundamentals
After a shaky start to the week, Gold futures have resumed a bullish course, with prices hovering just below the all-time highs, as traders moved back to the "yellow metal" after some disappointing U.S. economic data. On Thursday, the Labor Department reported that U.S. producer prices rose by 0.7% in March which was on top of a 1.6% increase in February. The bulk of the gains were tied to rising energy prices, especially gasoline, which rose by 5.7% last month. The recent sharp increases in producer prices have many analysts concerned that the current accommodative policies by the Federal Reserve may spark even greater increases in both consumer and producer prices later in the year. Gold has historically been seen as a store of value, and concerns about rising inflation -- especially with the U.S. Dollar being as weak as it has been -- can only help to give added support to the Gold market. It should be noted that Gold prices are not only strong vs. the beleaguered greenback, but also near highs against the Pound Sterling and the Japanese Yen. This shows that Gold's strength is not only derived from inflation fears, but that the Gold market is also finding support as an alternative to holding "paper' currency. Given the economic difficulties seen in many Western nations, it should not come as a big surprise that investors are looking towards moving some of their assets towards "hard" investments such as Gold.
Technical Notes
A look at the daily continuation chart for Gold shows that the "commodity wide" selloff we saw early this week had little effect on Gold prices. The recent low just below the 1445.00 level did not even come close to testing the 20-day moving average. If we draw a trendline from the intermediate low made back on January 28th to the recent low, we notice how this uptrend line has acted as support for the past several weeks. If prices close below this line, it may signal an end to the current bull market leg. There is a bearish divergence forming in the 14-day RSI, but the actual reading in this indicator remains strong, with a current reading of 64.80. The contract high of 1476.00 remains resistance for June Gold, with near-term support found at the uptrend line mentioned above, currently near the 1435.00 area.
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16 เม.ย. 54 16:50:15
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