ความคิดเห็นที่ 1 There have been whispers in the corridors of power that deteriorating macroeconomic conditions will bring about "stagflation", a distressing mixture of economic stagnation and high inflation. "The situation can deteriorate quickly if we don't manage the economy well. I am afraid we might experience stagflation," one senior government official said. Chakramon Phasukvanich, secretary-general of the National Economic and Social Development Board, said stagflation is not likely as the economy is not experiencing slow growth or high unemployment, although inflation might heat up. Thailand's macroeconomy was very sound during the first three years of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's tenure, as evidenced by low inflation, low interest rates, a current account surplus, strong export earnings, a competitive baht policy, lower foreign debt and strong foreign-exchange reserves. This macroeconomic stability has allowed Thaksinomics to flourish, with government spending and easy credit aimed at spurring high economic growth of about 7 per cent. But the good days are almost over. We are beginning to see macroeconomic conditions deteriorate quickly, making it tough for the government to maintain high economic growth and stability. We may have seen the end of easy money generated by Thaksinomics. จากคุณ : Monitor - [ 1 ก.ย. 47 15:34:25 A:61.90.83.3 X: TicketID:013429 ]

ความคิดเห็นที่ 2 Rising prices are the first of 10 reasons for this. Notwithstanding the higher oil prices, inflation has been heating up. The Finance Ministry has projected that inflation might average 2.5-3.1 per cent this year. This could force the Bank of Thailand to readjust its inflation target from zero to 3.5 per cent. The impact of higher inflation is that savers will see an erosion in their net savings as the inflation rate rises faster than the interest they earn. In short, consumers' purchasing power will get weaker. Secondly, interest rates are rising. As global rates rise, Thai rates will have to rise in tandem otherwise capital would flow out of the country. Higher rates would dampen economic growth and the government's populist policies and easy money projects will collapse if the rates rise by two percentage points. The banking authorities should have raised interest rates on July 21 rather than waiting until August 25, when they were forced to raise the short-term rate to 1.5 per cent on a par with the US Fed funds rate. The authorities were afraid that the higher rates would worsen non-performing loans and hurt people who borrowed heavily to finance mortgage payments and other spending. One analyst said the serviceability of grass-roots people's mortgage payments is very narrow, making them vulnerable to any rate hike. At the same time, a higher interest rate is inevitable as oil prices make goods and services more expensive, threatening further cost-push inflation. Thirdly, high oil prices are dealing a big blow to the Thai economy. It is unlikely that the oil prices will fall below US$40 a barrel. Prices will rise as a consequence, since Thailand imports most of its oil. The government plans to spend Bt70 billion toward the end of the year to subsidise the domestic oil prices. Yet this subsidy programme won't go very far when investors start the alarm bells over the government's public finances. Where will the money come from to finance this ill-advised subsidy? And when oil prices do come down, business operators or consumers won't get the gasoline cheaper since the subsidy programme would have to try to get its advance payment back. จากคุณ : Monitor - [ 1 ก.ย. 47 15:34:50 A:61.90.83.3 X: TicketID:013429 ]

ความคิดเห็นที่ 3 Fourthly, the economy is slowing down. The National Economic and Social Development Board has projected economic growth at 6 per cent this year and 5 per cent next year. The government has bragged that it would keep the growth rate at 7-8 per cent annually. Slower growth will dampen consumer confidence and erode the profitability of businesses. If the economy is to stall further, we'll begin to see more bad debts in the banking system. Already, loans at grass-roots level are turning bad. Fifth, we might see a trade deficit faster than we expected. As the government has stepped up its spending, directly from the budget or indirectly through other populist programmes and state-owned bank lending, this has created a surge in domestic consumption. And consumption leads to imports. We are now seeing the accelerating rate of imports, both in volume and prices, that is not matched by export volume and prices. As a result, some local economists have warned that we might see a trade deficit of US$500 million (Bt20.8 billion) to $1 billion this year. Fortunately, Thailand still enjoys a service account surplus, which helps keep the current account in surplus. But then again, things can change. If we are to face a deficit, no foreign banks will lend us money again because they will not be confident that they'll get their money back. In the case of Thai Petrochemical Industry Plc, the banks were ripped off. And Thailand's legal system is a disgrace. Sixth, the government's revenue collection will fall with the slowing economy. There is already concern among officials that the government might not be able to collect revenue to match its spending. In that case, it would have to run a budget deficit if the government does not downsize its fiscal spending. The government has achieved a balanced budget this year after several years of a budget deficit in the aftermath of the 1997 crisis. It would be a shock if Thailand runs a deficit again. Then we might have a twin deficit – trade deficit and budget deficit. Do any of us still remember the cause of the 1997 crisis? จากคุณ : Monitor - [ 1 ก.ย. 47 15:35:26 A:61.90.83.3 X: TicketID:013429 ]

ความคิดเห็นที่ 4 Seventh, the stock market is in bad shape. Since the beginning of the year, it has lost 22 per cent in value. The failure of the government to privatise the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, coupled with other mishaps, has eroded confidence in the stock market. When the financial scandal at Krung Thai Bank emerged more than a month ago, the stock market lost Bt400 billion in a matter of two weeks. The goal of Thaksinomics to push the SET index from 800 to 1,000 looks out of the question. Eighth, the baht has already lost about Bt2 against the dollar since the beginning of the year. As the Thai fundamentals get weaker, confidence in the Thai exchange rate has also been eroded. Now the Thai currency is being traded at more than Bt41 to the dollar. The over-zealous goal of Thaksinomics of pushing the baht to Bt35-Bt36 against the dollar is not going to be fulfilled. Ninth, confidence in the Thai banking system has been shaken by the financial scandal at Krung Thai Bank. Lax banking standards and poor corporate governance will make investors think twice before they invest their money in Thailand. In spite of the raucous proclamation of best practices, the government has failed badly in the area of good corporate governance. We can expect to see more bad loans, which still stood at a high level of 23 per cent of total loans in 2003. Tenth, Thailand will have no one to turn to in the event of another crisis because the Thaksin government has arrogantly kicked the International Monetary Fund out of the country. This time we will have to face the crisis alone. Thanong Khanthong The Nation http://www.nationmultimedia.com/page.news.php3?clid=6&theme=A&usrsess=1&id=120013 จากคุณ : Monitor - [ 1 ก.ย. 47 15:35:58 A:61.90.83.3 X: TicketID:013429 ]

ความคิดเห็นที่ 5 ทางประเทศมาเลย์เขา kicked off IMF ตั้งแต่ต้น คือไม่เคยพึ่งพาเลย ความจริงรายงานจากต่างชาติ ทั้งพวกผู้จัดการกองทุนรวม ทั้งกลุ่มดอกเตอร์ทั้งหลายที่เป็นฝรั่ง วิเคราะห์ประเทศไทยเมื่อเดือนมกราคม มองเจาะลึกถึงแก่นแล้ว (หาอ่านได้จากเวปดิฉัน ลงไว่ให้ตั้งแต่เดือนมกราคม) สรุปสั้นๆว่า เขาว่ารัฐบาลพยายามเร่งกระตุ้นทุกๆอย่างให้โตไวทันใจ โดยการใช้เงินจำนวนมหาศาลเข้าผลักดัน เพื่อให้ภาพออกมาดูดี ให้เป็นไปได้ดั่งใจ เขาว่า การที่เราวิ่งเร็วเกินไป จะทำให้สะดุดขาตัวเองหกล้ม จากคุณ : prettypetite - [ 1 ก.ย. 47 16:36:46 ]

ความคิดเห็นที่ 6 ทั้งทาง IMF และ CIA (ข้อมูลของ CIA จะมีรายละเอียดทุกๆอย่างของทุกๆประเทศในโลกนี้ แม้กระทั่ง Nauru ซึ่งเป็นประเทศสาธารณรัฐอิสระที่เล็กที่สุดในโลกขณะนี้) ได้คาดการณ์เศรฐกิจไทยปีนี้อยู่ที่ 6.5 มาตั้งแต่ต้นปีแล้ว แต่เราเพิ่งจะอ้อมแอ้มยอมรับเมื่อไม่กี่วันนี้เอง จากคุณ : prettypetite - [ 1 ก.ย. 47 16:45:15 ]

ความคิดเห็นที่ 7 เห็นด้วยกับพี่ prettypetite ครับ จากคุณ : roadtrip - [ 2 ก.ย. 47 00:19:03 ]

ความคิดเห็นที่ 8 อันนี้สรุปครับ 1. Notwithstanding the higher oil prices, inflation has been heating up. 2. Interest rates are rising. 3. High oil prices are dealing a big blow to the Thai economy. 4. The economy is slowing down. 5. We might see a trade deficit faster than we expected. 6. The government's revenue collection will fall with the slowing economy. 7. The stock market is in bad shape. 8. The baht has already lost about Bt2 against the dollar since the beginning of the year. 9. Confidence in the Thai banking system has been shaken by the financial scandal at Krung Thai Bank. 10. Thailand will have no one to turn to in the event of another crisis because the Thaksin government has arrogantly kicked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) out of the country. จากคุณ : Monitor (roadtrip) - [ 2 ก.ย. 47 00:41:25 ]