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Clouds May Clear For Thai Baht After Stormy First Half 2005
The Thai baht should strengthen in the second half of this year as the current account deficit looks set to improve with exports expected to receive a seasonal boost and continued foreign inflows into the Thai stock market.
11 Aug 2005
BANGKOK (Dow Jones)--Thailand's baht has taken a beating this year from a perfect storm of drought, tsunami, foreign portfolio outflows, dollar strength, Muslim insurgency, high oil prices and record imports.
But most economists think the clouds will clear for the Thai currency.
Current account situation to improve
Exports have remained strong and will get a seasonal boost in the second half, while the government has moved to cut consumption by eliminating a diesel subsidy and to cut imports by pressing the private sector to stop stockpiling oil, gold and steel.
The most bullish analysts say the currency may recover strongly in the second half, pushing the dollar down to as low as THB39.00, from a quoted level at 0620 GMT Thursday of THB40.875.
Lehman Brothers leads the bulls, predicting a further recovery for the baht to THB39 to the dollar by year-end, as Thailand's economy heads into a strong rebound next year on heavy government spending and investment.
The government plans to invest THB1.7 trillion on big infrastructure projects from 2005 to 2009, with funding from a variety of on-budget and off-budget sources along with securitizations and private-sector participation.
DBS thinks it is premature to be rallying the bulls, because the dollar's interest-rate driven rally may not be over :-). But it also believes that problems with the trade balance are easing and better days are ahead for the baht.
"The current account deficit will start narrowing in the second half and possibly post a surplus closer to year-end. Fuel consumption started falling in July following the lifting of the subsidy," said DBS economist Chua Hak Bin.
Growth in tourism earnings is also starting to recover from a slow patch after the December tsunami, and the high season starts in November.
Standard Chartered Bank and the local SCB Securities forecast that the baht will be in a rough consensus range of THB40.40-to-THB40.70 to the dollar by the end of 2005.
That would be an improvement from the first half when the baht was the worst performer against the dollar in Asia, apart from the Japanese yen.
The dollar rose sharply from a 57-month low in February of THB38.12 to a 26-month high in July at THB42.18.
The dollar has already lost ground against the baht and fell further Thursday, buoyed by an Asia-wide correction of first-half losses against the U.S. currency and a flood of foreign funds back into a very competitively-valued Thai bourse.
Attractive valuation of Thai stock market
Phatra Securities estimates the Thai stock market's price-to-earnings ratio is the lowest in the region at seven times, while its dividend yield is the highest in the region at 4.4%. Companies covered by Phatra analysts have sharply cut their debt burden since the financial crisis of 1997, and 2005 earnings are forecast at record levels.
The recent foreign inflows for stock investment should continue to support the baht, therefore, as long as economic growth continues to recover from a slow patch in the first half.
Still, not all economists think the stormy weather is over for the baht.
Some think the currency's recovery is a glimpse of sunlight that will soon disappear behind clouds.
Imports of oil and other commodities are likely to drop from unsustainably high levels relative to demand in the first half of the year, so the current account will improve, JPMorgan currency strategist Sin Beng Ong said.
"But we think it's going to be a temporary turnaround," he said.
A downturn in global growth will slow external demand for exports, just as high public-sector investment in infrastructure raises demand for imports, he added.
JPMorgan forecasts a sharp depreciation in the baht back to THB42 to the dollar by yearend, with a further slide to THB44 by the middle of 2006.
DBS, whose analysis of the outlook for the Thai economy and currency is more in line with the bulls, also expects further weakness before the baht turns around.
DBS currency strategist Philip Wee believes U.S. dollar strength on the back of an aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Open Market Committee hasn't :-) run its course.
He expects the baht to hit THB42.80 to the dollar by the end of the year, before recovering to THB40.70 by the end of 2006.
The forecasts are in line with the DBS view that the dollar's global bull run will end early next year. Its economists forecast that the U.S. may start to take back some of its interest rate increases, Japan should emerge from deflation into a structural recovery, and China will come under pressure to deliver more yuan appreciation against the dollar ahead of U.S. congressional elections in November 2006.
Thai baht included in Yuan's basket of currencies
Separately, the People's Bank of China said Wednesday that the baht is included in a basket of currencies whose value the central bank will use to guide a managed float in the yuan. But it isn't clear that the inclusion of the baht would lead to any further official or speculative buying of the Thai unit, and at any rate it isn't one of the major currencies in the basket.
Meanwhile, analysts said the global potential for terrorist attacks remains a background risk for Thailand.
Heavy-handed treatment by government security forces has been blamed for inflaming in the far southern provinces a Muslim insurgency, which renewed itself in January 2004 after years of dormancy. Analysts say the situation is a matter of concern, but the baht and the economy won't be affected unless the rebels can expand operations beyond their remote ethnic base to more economically-active areas of the country.
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