ความคิดเห็นที่ 14
Gold prices point toward the stars
Analysts say gold will continue onwards and upwards, despite some corrections along the way.
December 7, 2005: 12:43 PM EST
REUTERS
http://money.cnn.com/2005/12/07/markets/gold.reut/index.htm
In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.
LONDON (Reuters) - As gold sails into territory not visited for a quarter of a century, analysts pouring over their price charts say the course is onwards and upwards.
Bullion hit a new peak of $520.30 an ounce Wednesday, its highest since April 1981 and up 17 percent from the end of 2004.
Its onwards and upwards in a nutshell, said Phil Roberts, price analyst with Barclays Capital.
He and many other analysts who use historical price patterns to project future trends are looking for gold to target $550 and possibly higher next year.
This is a key price level as it represents a 50 percent retracement from the 1980 peak of $850. Analysts use a methodology known as Fibonacci retracement to pinpoint key areas toward which prices have frequently gravitated in the past.
Karen Jones of CommerzBank said in a recent report that the market had broken out from a 25-year down channel, and for the past four years had been contained by an uptrend.
Both of these factors suggest that not only is a bull move evident, it is also likely to remain entrenched for (2006 and 2007), she said.
The march higher will not be without corrections along the way, although most analysts expect these to provide a good buying opportunity for those who missed the boat earlier.
People want to buy the shiny metal, Gerry Celaya, analyst at Redtower Research said, adding he was looking for gold to target $520 in the short-term.
Since gold peaked at $850 in early 1980, this is only the third time prices have made it over $500 an ounce and prices spent a large swathe of time below $400, bottoming near $250 in 1999.
$1,000 an ounce?
Golds recent break above $510 meant the years of sideways price action would now act as a formidable platform, independent chart analyst Cliff Green said.
Reaching those highs is quite likely again, but to be honest the size of that base could take that out. Gold at $1,000? It can.
This is a trend that is going to continue, but dont buy here as it will be a pretty rocky ride along the way with deep corrections, Green added.
Analysts generally felt a slide back to $500 would attract further buying, although failure to hold that level could push it back to $490.
Below there, you have $480.30, which is the October break out level and then $470, said Jason Perl, global head of technical strategy at UBS Investment Bank.
But if you are a long-term value person, youll be looking to buy dips and if you see it down around the $470 level, its kind of like the equivalent of looking to buy crude oil below $50 a barrel, he said.
Perl forecast spot gold would reach $550 by the first quarter of 2006.
That is clearly an objective and quite realistic, he said, adding that in the shorter term, prices could hit $525 by the end of 2005.
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