 |
7 Discussion
We note that there is a sharp controversy about
the value among geologists. Some think that this
value should be rather small, whereas others advocate
that, before a severe earthquake, the might reach
a sizable value. Taking the advice of the more con-
servative geologists, we adopt a relatively small value
in this work. Indeed, we only investigate the physics
and provide a possible way to forecast the earthquake
in terms of neutrino medium e ects in this work, but
we will leave the detailed study of the value to the
geologists.
In fact, the other neutrino sources, such as the
cosmic muon, would contaminate our detection cir-
cumstances. However, we may set some shielding
and veto facilities to reduce the uncertainty caused
by other neutrino sources. The detailed technical dif-
culties would be left for our experimental colleagues.
Foreseeing earthquakes in a certain region within
ten years, two years and one or two months cor-
responds to long-, medium- and short-term earth-
quake forecast, while an impending earthquake fore-
cast should be made a few days before the outbreak.
For the long-term and medium-term forecast, there is
quite a long duration for the detector to collect su-
cient data even though the
ux is suppressed by the
small solid angle spanned by the detector. For short-
term and impending forecasting, the electron density
changes drastically as the earthquake is coming, and
the overall e ect results in a large shift in the oscilla-
tion probability in a short time interval, so that ob-
serving clear signals might be feasible if the
ux from
the source is suciently strong. As mentioned previ-
ously, the geometrical deformation caused by strain
and shear would last for a long period, say, hundreds
of years in some cases, and the deformation would
eventually reach its maximum before the outbreak.
However, the strong anomalous electric eld appears
only several days, e.g. about a week, before the earth-
quake, so that the week before the outbreak is crucial
for detectors to collect data and reach a conclusion
about the upcoming disaster.
ผม ยกบางส่นมา อยากอ่านละเอียด ศึกษาจากเวปได้เลยครับ
| จากคุณ |
:
think4223 
|
| เขียนเมื่อ |
:
2 เม.ย. 54 16:57:13
|
|
|
|
|
ไม่เกี่ยว โลกจะแตก ไม่แตก มีแต่ประเด็น ปกติหรือไม่ ปกติ...ขอรวบรวมมาเพื่อ ให้ช่วยกันสังเกต{แตกประเด็นจาก X10395484}
